The idea was once touted as a key part of Tesla’s future business model. Musk claimed competitors would inevitably come knocking to license FSD, citing the software’s superiority over alternatives like Waymo or GM’s Super Cruise. But reality hasn’t played out as expected.

Earlier this year, Ford CEO Jim Farley shot down any notion of adopting FSD technology, calling it “not as good” compared to its own autonomy efforts and those offered by Google’s Waymo. The sentiment echoed the broader industry’s skepticism towards Tesla’s approach.

Tesla’s aggressive deployment strategy sets it apart from legacy automakers like Ford and GM. While Tesla rolls out beta versions of FSD to its customer base for real-world testing, traditional manufacturers follow a more cautious V-model validation process. This difference in methodology could explain why other carmakers aren’t lining up to adopt FSD.

Furthermore, regulatory hurdles remain significant obstacles. The James Tran lawsuit against Tesla, recently settled, highlights the risks associated with deploying semi-autonomous systems prematurely without adequate safety measures. Musk’s comment about “unworkable requirements” from potential licensees likely refers to these stringent validation processes and legal liabilities automakers must adhere to.

As Musk concedes that FSD licensing discussions have stalled, it’s clear that the once-popular idea is now a non-starter. The divergence in approaches between Tesla and other manufacturers underscores fundamental differences in how they approach autonomy development and deployment.

The saga of FSD licensing reveals much about the divergent paths taken by industry leaders. While tesla¹ pushes boundaries with its aggressive software updates, traditional automakers prefer methodical validation processes. This divide may continue to shape the future of autonomous driving in the automotive world.¹

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Wertheimer’s prediction hinges on the growth potential of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program, which he sees as a tipping point for autonomous driving technology. As we reported earlier this year, Tesla aims to roll out its FSD capabilities in Europe by February 2026, a significant step towards realizing the company’s vision of global dominance. This timing is crucial, as it aligns with Tesla’s continuous improvements and updates, such as the recent v14.2 version, which has seen mixed reviews.

One aspect that sets Tesla apart from competitors like BMW and Ford is its data-driven approach to developing autonomous technology. With millions of cars on the road continuously collecting data, Tesla can refine its systems more effectively than legacy automakers struggling with outdated architectures and fragmented supplier networks. Melius believes this gives Tesla a substantial edge in the race for autonomy.

The analyst also pointed out that Tesla’s progress is not just about software; it’s a holistic approach involving hardware, manufacturing processes, and overall vehicle design. This comprehensive strategy has helped Tesla maintain its leadership position despite challenges like recent controversies over navigation updates and ongoing competition in the electric vehicle market.

Tesla’s stock performance reflects this optimistic outlook, with shares rising by over 6 percent to around $416 shortly after the Melius note was released. The surge underscores investor confidence in Tesla’s ambitious plans for self-driving technology and its potential impact on global automotive markets.

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