The year-on-year decline of diesel cars slowed down since Q2 of the current year, registering at 2.5% for October. Despite this trend, actual sales figures saw a decrease; around 100,000 diesel vehicles were sold in October compared to approximately 122,000 units during the same period last year (a reduction of 22k cars).

Cumulative sales up until October amounted to 1.1 million units, a decline from January-October 2024 figures which stood at 1.37 million. This represents an overall year-on-year drop of 20%. Only three countries—Austria, Germany, and Ireland—are holding onto diesel cars with over 20% share, with Germany particularly standing out due to its significant contribution in terms of volume.

The used car market for diesel vehicles is experiencing robust prices amid the shrinking new vehicle sector. Diesel cars continue to be preferred choices for towing tasks where battery electric vehicles (BEVs) lack competitiveness. Additionally, they are favored for their durability and cost-efficiency, making them a popular choice among consumers who prioritize these attributes.

Recent trends indicate that small diesel engines have been rapidly phased out with an increasing focus on larger displacements around the 2.0L mark. The market is witnessing a slight rise in sales of vehicles equipped with bigger engine capacities, although the overall trend remains one of decline.

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Year-to-date (YTD) figures show that 75 million vehicles have been sold as of October, representing a 5% increase from the corresponding period in 2024. Key markets such as the US, Western Europe, and China saw varied outcomes: the US experienced a notable decline attributed to the termination of EV tax credits, while sales in Western Europe showed improvement thanks to new electrification incentives. In contrast, China reported record results for October due to consumers purchasing vehicles ahead of anticipated decreases in NEV tax discounts.

In North America, US light vehicle sales dropped by 4.7% YoY in October to 1.27 million units despite having the same number of selling days as the previous year. The daily selling rate fell to 47,200 units/day from September’s 52,100 units/day, and the annualized selling rate slowed down to 15.3 million units/year compared with 16.4 million in September. Efforts by Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) to bolster demand through incentives were not as effective as hoped due to the removal of EV tax credits.

Average transaction prices increased to US$46,412, marking a US$485 increase month-over-month and a 3.0% rise year-over-year. Meanwhile, the average incentive was recorded at US$2,835, down by US$378 from September’s figure.

Canada reported an estimated 157k units in light vehicle sales for October, showcasing a 7.7% YoY growth. This robust performance led to the highest selling rate since March, reaching 1.95 million units/year compared with September’s 1.81 million units/year.

Finally, Mexico saw its sales increase by 7.4%, totaling 138k units sold in October and achieving a selling rate of 1.63 million units/year, up from the previous month’s 1.59 million units/year.

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